“We must remain real and relevant to young people” – Carlos Sanvee addresses World Scouting conference

World YMCA Secretary General Carlos Sanvee was a guest panelist looking at ‘Trends of the World’ at the World Scouts Conference in Cairo on Sunday 18 August 2024. He was specifically asked to examine the implications of projected population growth for youth empowerment organisations such as the Scouts and the YMCA.

Following a keynote address from UN Deputy Secretary General Amina Mohamed, Carlos joined Dr Kevin Frey, CEO, Generation Unlimited, UNICEF, HE Rania Al-Mashat, Minister for Planning, Economic Development and International, Egypt, Chris Purifoy, CEO and Co-Founder, Learning Economy Foundation, and Melissa El Feghali, a World Scouting Youth Representative, in a session moderated by the World Scout Bureau’s Nour Mohamed.

He reflected on the headline statistic that there will be 9.7 billion people living on the planet by 2050: “there will be growing populations in less developed countries, and stagnating populations in more developed countries”. Half of the population growth, he said, will be concentrated in just nine developing countries, and half of African countries will double in size. The task of meeting the SDGs thereby gets harder: ending poverty and hunger, expanding and updating health and education systems, achieving gender equality and women’s empowerment.

Meanwhile there will be ageing populations in more developed countries: the number of persons aged 60 or above is expected to more than double by 2050, to 2.1 billion – with the most obvious ‘ageing’ in the economic powerhouses of Europe and China. The result will be pressures in health care, pensions and social protection. “And one guaranteed result of this population growth – and the two issues of the search for economic wellbeing and increasing climate disruption – is that there will be increasing migration to richer countries with declining and older populations. And migration, as we can already well see, brings major social, economic and political challenges and polarisation”, he said.

“So what we see is that Developing economies in the Global South will face an oversupply of young people at working age while aging developed Global North countries like China, Europe and North America will face an undersupply and a talent shortage.”

He asked what these demographic changes mean to Gen Z, now in their 20s, who will be in their 40s by 2050.  He stressed that “It’s our task to know this, to listen, to react, to accompany young people”. “If you’re Gen Z in the developing world of growing populations” he said, “the economic outlook is likely to get harder, with population slowing growth and making the SDGs more unattainable. There will be massive pressure on jobs, which the developing world is already struggling to create, for instance with Africa producing 11 million 18-year-olds a year, and finding jobs for only 4 million. This is the opposite of the ‘democratic dividend’, and will get worse. Meanwhile Artificial Intelligence will continue to take away jobs, especially the entry-level ones of young people.”

He cited how Professor Yuval Harari has warned about the emergence of a “useless class” — people whose skills are no longer relevant in an AI-dominated job market. “They will not only be unemployed but also unemployable. For organizations like World Scouting and YMCA, this presents both a challenge and an opportunity. We will remain in business as long as we continue to advocate and equip young people with skills that cannot be replaced by AI — skills such as creativity, emotional intelligence, and leadership. And as long as we continue to play a critical role in guiding youth to navigate increasingly polarized societies, by promoting wellbeing and inclusion and building resilience in the face of these disruptions.”

With research at the core of how Scouts and YMCA can help young people, he spoke about a 2024 YMCA global research survey of 10,000 young people which found that young people are three times more likely than adults to be unemployed and be in insecure job arrangements, with little to no social protection. “That will likely get worse”. And only a third of young people believe that their country’s economic situation will improve in the next year, while even fewer (a quarter) have confidence in the political and social outlook. He revealed that the research found that 40% of young people report they are stressed almost all of the time.

“And in all this … approximately 1.1 billion young people from the Global South alone are entering the workforce in the next decade. On the one hand, they’re a source of energy, ideas, and adaptability. On the other, they are pressurised and ill-equipped, and the costs of young people ‘Not in Education, Employment or Training’ is already calculated in $ billions.”

He was clear how organisations like Scouts and YMCA can remain fit for purpose now and up to 2050, to serve these young people. Take heart, he said, from the fact that we have adapted ever since 1850 when YMCA was founded, with the Scouts not so far behind. “Since then, we have survived only by adapting, listening, looking ahead. We should be proud of how we have done that, and confident that we can continue to do it.”

He urged Scouts and YMCA to lean in on what we stand for and what makes us unique.

“The Devil has many of the best tunes in the battle for young people’s hearts and minds, and misinformation and disinformation is rife.  But remember our shared Scouts/YMCA core: it’s our values – justice, compassion, equity. We are both fully committed to what we in YMCA call ‘the just world’. We have a role in communities as mini-communities, linked to people of all ages. “We are trusted, and have unique access to young people and communities. Where governments and others often fail, we often succeed and can be bridge-builders. We are part of the communities we serve.”

So he expanded on some of the actions which Scouts and YMCAs should continue to take, especially in the world of work. “We will continue to employ and engage young people: Scouts incorporates 57 million scouts and volunteers; YMCA reckons its reaches 60+ million people a year, and it’s one of the largest employers of young people and volunteers worldwide. We will continue to give them vocational training, where possible in the growth areas like the Green, Care and Creative sectors. “Whatever else,” he said, “we must be real and relevant to young people”. He compared YMCA Vision 2030 with the current Scouts strategy process. “We must be able to convince them – and to convince donor and partners – of what we can do for them. We do this by stories and data. “ ‘Ready for Life’ is your new Scouts slogan, but Scouts and YMCA must both be ‘Ready for Reimagination’”.